MTMA39-Forecasting Systems and Applications

Module Provider: Meteorology
Number of credits: 10 [5 ECTS credits]
Level:7
Terms in which taught: Autumn term module
Pre-requisites:
Non-modular pre-requisites:
Co-requisites:
Modules excluded:
Current from: 2021/2

Module Convenor: Dr Peter Inness
Email: p.m.inness@reading.ac.uk

Type of module:

Summary module description:
An introduction to the end-to-end process of operational weather forecast production.

Aims:

• To introduce the different methods of numerical and statistical weather and climate forecasting used in a range of applications.

Assessable learning outcomes:

By the end of the module the student should be able to:

• Describe the basic formulation of a numerical weather or climate forecasting model in simple terms;


• List the various different applications of numerical forecasting systems, from short range forecasting up to seasonal forecasting;


• Describe the use of statistical methods in providing empirical forecasts, particularly at the seasonal time scale;


• Discuss the im portance of a wide variety of observations in setting initial conditions for weather and climate forecasts;


• Discuss the various constraints on the design of a weather or climate forecasting system;


• Discuss and quantify in relative terms the various sources of uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts;


• Discuss some of the ways in which the output from forecast models is processed in order to provide useful information to forecasters and their cus tomers;


• Describe and objectively discuss some of the ways in which ensemble forecasts are used;


• Describe some methods for evaluating the performance of numerical prediction models.

Additional outcomes:

Students will learn to run the ECMWF portable forecasting system, “Open-IFS” and produce plots of the forecast variables using the ECMWF MetView system.

Outline content:

• The basic formulation of numerical models in terms of a set of dynamical equations, parametrized sub-gridscale physical processes and a model domain with appropriate resolution;


• The other elements of an operational forecasting system, including the input and assimilation of observations, generation of model output fields and the post-processing of model output to provide useful information for the production of weather forecasts;


• The different appl ications for which numerical models are used, together with consideration of how these applications affect the design of the forecasting system. Examples of the systems used by the UK Met Office will be given, together with some comparison with systems used at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts where appropriate;


• An introduction to the various types of observational data used in numerical models, together with some consideration of how these observations intro duce uncertainty into weather prediction;


• An introduction to the use and interpretation of ensemble forecasts * Comparison of statistical and dynamical forecasts at seasonal time scales;


• The evaluation of forecast model performance.

Brief description of teaching and learning methods:

Lectures, including structured discussion of operational model output.

Students will be taught to run the ECMWF Open-IFS forecasting system and analyse the output in two 2-hour computing practical sessions.

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Summative assessment- Examinations:

2 hour exam with a choice of two from three questions in January.

Summative assessment- Coursework and in-class tests:

Written report on operational forecasting system.

Formative assessment methods:

��Mid-term online quiz.

Penalties for late submission:

The below information applies to students on taught programmes except those on Postgraduate Flexible programmes. Penalties for late submission, and the associated procedures, which apply to Postgraduate Flexible programmes are specified in the policy 􀀓Penalties for late submission for Postgraduate Flexible programmes􀀔, which can be found here: